BTD: multiple factors? overconfidence and collective intelligence?


Really enjoyed the session, and have a couple of question for Dr. Gold. If he plans to cover them in future sessions, I can wait.

Does research give evidence of a interaction of 2 factors, anchoring and over-confidence? Example: would an economist be influenced by and anchor of say, 3% annual inflation rate, on a retirement planning model more, less or the same, as would a music teacher? I would expect the anchor effect still exists, but is less, who the subject has specific self-confidence around the anchor. Given the tendency to overconfidence, especially with highly trained persons, what do you think of the growing number of web sites that attempt to harness “collective intelligence” to make predictions? Examples range from sites like to older services like Thomson First Call which aggregates analysts earnings forecasts?

Patrick Toner

16. May 2008 by Arrian
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